Monday, October 10, 2016

Trading With Trandlines: USD/JPY Today

Today out of all pairs that I actively watch all the time only USD/JPY was very suitable for trading.
In my opinion, the pair is forming a correction, but despite that today it offered two price channels that could be traded well. The first one formed in the early hours after the market opened from 103.197 to 102.806 (the red lines) and after the breakout its limit was 25 pips:

Immediately after that a second upwards channel started forming from the 102.865 level (in blue) and it is still forming. Although it is possible to trade within the channel by moving the stop loss level, in case there is a breakout its limit will be around 31 pips:

Of course for the moment it is difficult to say with any certainty where the breakout will occur. There are three scenarios.

If the breakout is to the downside we can expect a test of the support trendline (in green) and then a renewal of the move to the upside.

In the second scenario the pair will continue rising to break out above the channel.

In the third possible scenario there will be a breakout below the support trendline (in green) and then a continuation of the move to the downside, which means that the bearish trend will continue too. In my opinion, however, it is too early to consider that scenario.

I find the second scenario to be the most probable.