USD/CAD Is Falling towards the Support at 1.2650

Two months ago the pair formed a very clear shooting star candlestick on the monthly time frame, which was an obvious signal that it would start falling. Currently the pair is about to reach yet another target on its way down – the support at 1.2650, which coincides with (EMA)89 on the weekly time frame.

As we all know, however, the signals on the monthly time frame have long-term consequences, which is why I am almost certain that the support at 1.2650 wouldn’t be able to stop its descent for long and the pair will easily break below it. If this does happen, the next level of support is at 1.2570 – 1.2550, which is the middle line of Bollinger Bands on the monthly time frame.

USD/JPY Might Start Rising Again

Yesterday USD/JPY fell with around 180 pips which is a considerable drop, but today I think that the pair is about to resume moving to the upside.

At this point I expect it to start climbing towards 112.80 – 113.00. Also in case the current candlestick on the day time frame forms a hammer at or above the Bollinger Bands middle line I think we will see a further climb towards 114.00 – 114.50.

It is also possible that correction will be even deeper and the pair will rise even higher, but for now it is too early to say whether that will happen.

USD/JPY Formed a Double Top and Started Falling

Later today Janet Yellen will speak at the At the Economic Club of New York Luncheon, and it seems that the market is attempting to accumulate liquidity until then, so it can react when she does.

In my opinion, the only pair that had a clear signal about its future movements since this morning was USD/JPY.

113.80 proved to be a very strong level of resistance, since the pair reached it twice in the past two weeks and started falling once it became clear it couldn’t break above it.

For now my short position remains open because I intend to wait until it reaches 113.20. In case it breaks below that level, the next levels of support are at 112.80 – 112.70.

However, we should keep in mind that Yellen’s speech can cause all sorts of surprises, which is why I intend to place a stop loss while this position is still profitable.

EUR/USD Started Rising, as We Should Have Expected

The EUR/USD  range lasted 60 hours and the pair tested the support at 1.1150 for four days before it finally bounced off of that support in the end of the Easter holiday and started rising.

Today it climbed with around 50 pips before it stopped at the resistance at 1.1200.

Currently it’s difficult to say whether the pair will continue climbing above that level after a retracement or whether it will start falling towards the support again.

In my opinion, I doubt that the pair will continue rising until the end of the American trading session today.

On the other hand, we can most likely expect a further development tomorrow. In case EUR/USD does continue climbing, it will probably test the resistance at 1.1340 - 1.1350, and if it breaks above that level it will continue towards 1.1400.

Today Is Good Friday. EUR/USD Reached a Strong Support

Today a large part of the Christian world is celebrating Good Friday, which is why the market in most of these countries is closed, with the exception of the currency pairs.

I want to wish all my fellow traders who are celebrating today a happy and peaceful Easter!

I also want to remind those my fellow traders who have decided to open new trades despite the holiday that apart from being a holiday, today is also Friday, which means that the market will close soon in general.  

I, personally, don’t expect any major movements on the market, most pairs will probably be consolidating. I think we should all keep this in mind and not hope for any major trades today.

Although it seems that today will be pretty  uneventful, EUR/USD has reached a very strong level of support. Which is why I opened short-term long positions.

EUR/GBP Keeps Testing 0.79

EUR/GBP has been testing the powerful resistance at the 0.79 level, which coincides with the (EMA)89 (the green line) on the monthly time frame. The pair testing it even now.

I don’t know how many traders use (EMA)89, that is (Exponential Moving Average)89, in their technical analyses, but so far this indicator has never led me astray, especially when it comes to such a large time frame as the monthly one.

You can see for yourselves on the screenshots. On the weekly time frame the pair appears to be in the middle of nowhere, but on the monthly one the green line of (EMA)89 has been a barrier for the pair’s rise for a month now.

If it does manage to eventually break above 0.79 next level of resistance is 0.81.

The EUR/USD Prognosis Remains the Same

Back on Monday I wrote that the pair could potentially rise to 1.1550 – 1.16.

Although EUR/USD continued slowly falling since them, that drop is obviously part of a correction and is clearly contrasting with the impulse climbing since 2nd March (from 1.0833). Considering this I think that after the end of this correction there will be a new impulse move to the upside, towards the resistance at 1.1550, which can be seen on the weekly time frame.

After drawing the trend lines of the previous climb and then following drop, I believe that prognosis is still valid.

The pair can, indeed, reverse and start moving to the downside on a long-term basis if it breaks below 1.1170 – 1.1150. If that happens I will have to reexamine my analysis.

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EUR/USD Could Potentially Rise to 1.1550 – 1.1600.

At the end of last week EUR/USD reached a very serious level of resistance at 1.13, which is visible on the weekly time frame.

My expectations that the pair would fail to break above that level and start dropping again so far haven’t become a reality.

The pair stubbornly refuses to fall and is forming a flag instead, which can be seen when you look at the smaller time frames, such as the one hour and the four hour time frames. This flag will most likely continue to form for another day or maybe two, but in the end it’s quite possible for the pair to continue rising towards the resistance at 1.1550 – 1.1560, which coincides with (EMA)89 on the weekly time frame.

In case the pair does fall the first serious level of support is at 1.12.

GBP/USD Reached a Strong Resistance

I expected that the pair will stop dropping at the support at 1.4100 and that did happen, even though it fell to 1.4050, but then it easily bounced off that level. And not only did GBP/USD bounc off that level, it did it so hard that it shot up to 1.4490 in two days.

There, however, was another hurdle – the powerful resistance coinciding with the upper band of Bollinger Bands (the blue line) and (EMA)89 (the green line) on the daily time frame, visible on the screenshot.

I think next week the pair will break above this resistance and it will start rising towards the next resistance at 1.4600.

I also think that there will be a more long-term correction.

NZD/USD Has Been Consolidating for Seven Months at the Historical Low

The last time the pair visited these levels in August 2009 and in May and June 2010.

When you look at the shorter time-frames (in this case the weekly and the daily ones), you see that the pair is consolidating at the support at 0.63 and it’s forming a flag. Usually that means that the trend, in this case a bearish trend, will continue.

We do have to keep in mind that we’re at a historical low and consider the other possibility – that it may start rising instead.

The doji candlestick for September 2015 visible on the monthly time-frame supports the latter scenario, not to mention that the pair hasn’t formed a new low since then.

It's possible the current consolidation to last another month or two until the pair reaches the middle line of Bollinger Bands on the monthly time frame, after which it may fall to the trendline on the screenshot, where it will likely find very strong support on the monthly time-frame.

As we know, the longer a consolidation lasts, the more impressive the movement will be once it ends. So, while we trade on the shorter time-frames we have to watch the pair closely so we can be sure we’ll be able to trade the powerful movement that has to begin sooner or later.

GBP/USD Reached Target 1.41

The question is, what follows next?

Considering the way it dropped from 1.4430 to 1.4100 without making any significant retracement and considering the way the weekly and the monthly time-frames look like, the most probable scenario is that it will either form a new historical low, or at the very least it will continue dropping and test the support at 1.3835.

We shouldn’t forget that the pair has reached the support coinciding with the middle line of Bollinger bands, which usually attracts the price like a magnet, especially when it comes to longer time-frames like the daily one.

In my opinion it will break below the support, but how long it will take to do that remains to be seen.

GBP/USD Is about to Test 1.41

From all the currency pairs I have been observing carefully since the beginning of this week, the most clear signal of reversal showed up in the GBP/USD daily time-frame chart in the early hours after the market opened on Monday.

This tiny doji candlestick under the strong resistance signified by the Bollinger Bands indicator (the blue line) and the ЕMA 89 (the green line) was a signal that the pair will not continue moving to the upside.
GBP/USD has been dropping for two days now and the obvious target is the level of support at 1.4150 – 1.4100.

According to my previous experience in situations like this, the pair should bounce off that level temporarily. At the moment it’s difficult to determine how long this retracement will last, and how high it will climb. We have to wait and see what candlesticks will form at the support level.

Introduction

Hello everyone!

I am Emma Radisson and I have been trading on the Forex market for the past several years.

I am mostly interested in technical analysis.

Fundamental analysis, which undoubtedly has many followers, is not one of my priorities, because in my opinion and due to my observations so far, fundamentals have a powerful, but a short-term effect on the market.

My favourite trading strategies involve Japanese candlestick analysis and levels of support and resistance.

I have been thinking about making a Forex trading-related blog for a while now, and in the end I decided now was the time to do it. In this blog I intend to share my opinions about the currency pairs I am interested in and which I trade.

I very much hope that my posts will be interesting and useful to people with similar interests.

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