Friday, December 29, 2017

Gold Renewed Its Rally And It May Continue Moving North

The trend lines on the chart are old, I have kept them so I can follow how the price of the metal is developing and now it is obvious that is has reached a trend line which could be a resistance. It is possible that at his level (1306) the metal could stall and then form a correction to the downside, testing the resistance at 1290 that it broke out above.

Despite that I think we can expect that the next target for Gold will be around 1330 - 1333. If Gold breaks out above that resistance the next target of the rally could be 1375-1380.

In case there is a drop Gold could test 1170 – 1130 but for now that doesn’t seem very probable.

Thursday, December 28, 2017

EUR/USD Resumed The Upward Trend

EUR/USD resumed its upward trend and it looks like it will keep rallying. The rally may continue toward the resistance zone around 1.2000 - 1.2090 (in blue) but it is still hard to say whether the correction that began on 8th September 2017 from 1.20922 is over or not.

These are the possible scenarios:

In my opinion, the first scenario is that the pair will reach the resistance zone around 1.2000 - 1.2090 (in blue) and if that resistance holds then there will be a drop to 38.2% Fibo.

The second scenario is a breakout above the last high at 1.2092 and a continuation of the rally. The next resistance is around 1.2350.

Wednesday, December 27, 2017

USD/CAD May Continue Depreciating

USD/CAD could not break above the resistance at 1.2920 and after forming a triple top at that resistance on the D1 time frame it started depreciating.

At the moment the pair is in the support zone around 1.2620 – 1.2660 from which it has rebounded multiple times for the past nine weeks.

I think that in case it breaks out below that zone and remains below it then the depreciation will continue toward the zone around  1.2460 - 1.2400 (in red) where is the next support.

In the alternate scenario the pair will rebound from the current support and it will attempt to break out above 1.2920. In my opinion this scenario is not very likely and we will see a continuation of the depreciation, but surprises are not out of the question.

Tuesday, December 26, 2017

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Monday, December 25, 2017

Merry Christmas!

Today and tomorrow are one of the largest and most celebrated holidays – Christmas!

The market will open tonight but few people will actually trade, in my opinion. I think that we can expect weak movements  and range and the market wouldn’t be very useful for trading if one tried.

Which is why I want to wish you a Merry Christmas and after the holiday we will focus on the trading again!

Saturday, December 23, 2017

EUR/JPY Continues Testing The Resistance Around 134.40 – 134.50.

EUR/JPY continues testing the resistance around 134.40 – 134.50 and in the meantime the RSI indicator on the W1 time frame tests the trend line for a fourth time without being able to break out above it.

I think that if it does break out we could say with a large amount of certainty that the pair will continue rallying and the next resistance level will be around 137.00.

In the alternate scenario the first support for the pair is in the zone around 131.70 – 131.80. This support has been stopping the depreciation of the pair for ten weeks and it is obvious it won’t be easy to break out below it.

And last but not least, since tomorrow is Christmas I want to say Merry Christmas to all who celebrate it!

Friday, December 22, 2017

EUR/USD May Be Consolidating Next Week

This year the winter holidays coincide with the normal work week and that is why the market will open and close as usual. Despite that winding down of the market can be felt and most currency pairs are range-bound.

Still, the EUR/USD pair is attempting to form a bullish pin bar on the H4 time frame which should close in less than half an hour and if it does close in that manner it would be a signal for a weak rally to 1.1870 – 1.1890.

The bars that have formed on the D1 time frame, however, are a signal for a drop to 1.1820.
In other words I don’t think we can expect anything more than consolidation that can either be traded only on the smaller time frames or we should avoid trading altogether until the holidays pass and the market becomes volatile once again.

Thursday, December 21, 2017

USD/JPY Is Preparing For A Rally

There are only a few more days until Christmas and then New Year’s Eve. The market has calmed down considerably because most people are preparing for the holidays.

Despite all that the USD/JPY pair is showing signs that it is preparing for a rally.

We should watch carefully how the monthly bar will close, but if it does close the way it looks like it will, as a third spinning top above the support at 110.50, then the rally is inevitable.

The first resistance to the upside is the zone around 113.75 – 114.00 followed by the zone around 114.80 - 115.20.

To the downside the pair will meet serious support around 112.00 – 111.50 and it is doubtful it will break out below it.