Saturday, October 15, 2016

Is EUR/USD Falling towards Parity?




The pair broke below the upwards channel (in electric blue) that it has been forming from 1.05221 (on 1st February 2015) to 1.16162 (on 1st May 2016) at the 1.11200 level and if it reaches its limit the pair should drop with at least 846 pips from the breakout level. The limit, marked with the purple dashed line you can see on the chart, is at 1.02710 and the pair reaching it would practically mean reaching parity.


On the other hand, it is obvious that at the moment EUR/USD is headed towards a support level at 1.09110, which is a low that formed on 29th November 2015 and is marked as a dynamic support level by the Bollinger Bands indicator on the weekly time frame.


On the daily time frame we can see a smaller triangle (in red) from the 1.10455 level (on 5th August 2015) to the 1.13661 level (on 18th August 2016) the limit of which is at 1.08310.

All this data leads me to the following conclusion:
The drop that started with the breakout at 1.11200 and was interrupted by the test of the trendline in electric blue at 1.1310 has been renewed and it will probably continue.


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