Saturday, March 31, 2018

The USD/CAD Prognosis For The Next Week


We can’t ignore the interesting development of the USD/CAD pair with the caveat that on Monday (3rd April), which is a holiday, we can hardly expect big movements on the market.

The pair began moving north and for the moment it is developing within a perfect trend channel with a height at its base exactly 855 pips.

If we suppose that the market will follow the trend lines then we should expect a test of the resistance trend line (in blue), a renewal of the depreciation to the support trend line of the channel (in red) and a possible breakout in order for the depreciation to continue toward the next support trend line (in blue).


The alternative scenario is a breakout above the resistance trend line (in blue) and a rally to 1.3750 – 1.3800.




Friday, March 30, 2018

USD/JPY Is At A Support Level


The markets have slowed down completely since large parts of the world are celebrating Easter. I don’t think we will see any major movements neither today nor on Monday (2nd April), and on 3rd April, Tuesday, there are no major financial or economic news despite it being a work day, which could provoke volatility.

Despite that the USD/JPY pair has reached a strong support on the H4 time frame and the bars that have formed and closed on that chart are signaling for an impending move north. I think that in case there is a breakout above 106.30 the medium term targets could be at 106.50, 107.00, 107.50.

To the downside the pair has to overcome 106.00 – 105.50 in order to continue depreciating to 105.00.

Thursday, March 29, 2018

EUR/USD Continues Consolidating And The Expectation For A Rally Remains Valid

EUR/USD is still range-bound and it seems that a new phase of the impulse movement won’t begin until the pair tests the diagonal trend line of support of the upward movement from January 2017 until now.


 Still, this moment is getting closer I hope and I think we should follow the development of this pair during the test of the support trend line (in red). My expectation is that the correction to the downside will be limited to around 1.2230 – 1.2250.

The prognosis for a final rally toward 1.2700 for a fifth out of fifth wave remains valid for the moment.

In case the pair drops below 1.21543, however, the expectation above will be invalidated and a new assessment of the wave counting will become necessary.


Wednesday, March 28, 2018

GBP/USD Continues Developing Within The Trend Channel



GBP/USD continues developing within the trend channel from 1.19858 (January 2017) and until now the pair has broken out above the resistance trend line just once reaching a local high at 1.43452.

The scenarios that could develop from now on are the following:

The pair could test the trend line for a second time and in case it succeeds in breaking out above it, it could continue its move north to the upper side of the resistance zone (in blue) between 1.4650 and 1.4700.

In case the test is unsuccessful the pair could renew its depreciation to the support trend line of the channel around 1.3770 – 1.3800.


Monday, March 26, 2018

The Forex Calendar For This Week


Last week was exceptionally full of events that had a major effect on the market, the biggest one being the US FED hiking up the interest rate from 1.50% to 1.75%. This is week, in contrast, provides us with a bit of a breather because these events are very few and occur only from Tuesday and Thursday.

On Monday and Friday there are no major events, as I mentioned above.

On Tuesday we can expect the US CB Consumer Confidence data and the Australia and New Zealand Bank Confidence data.

On Wednesday will be announced the US Final GDP q/q and the Crude Oil Inventories.

And last, on Thursday, we can expect the British Office of National Statistics’ Current Account and Canadian GDP m/m.

Saturday, March 24, 2018

AUD/USD Is Headed For The Support Trend Line OF The Pennant


As I have mentioned in one of my last assessments of the pair>>>  AUD could not break out above the strong resistance level at 0.8135 and began a powerful drop which for two months led the pair to 0.7700. The last trading session closed at 0.76949 and I think the depreciation will continue to the support trend line of the pennant around 0.76.


This observation was done on the W1 time frame. When examining the H4 time frame we could suppose that the pair will either form a flag (or a smaller pennant) to test the trend line (in red) after breaking out below it or it will directly continue dropping.

The closest support on the H4 time frame is around 0.7670-0.7660 and depending on the way the pair behaves around that support we could make a clearer short term prognosis whether the drop will continue without a correction or we should wait out the correction after which the pair will head for the support trend line of the pennant.