Tuesday, June 21, 2016

A Trend Reversal for Gold?




Gold formed a third consecutive high visible on the weekly time frame for the period between 12th and 19th June and by doing so it also reached 75% of the limit of the wedge that has been forming in the past two years – between December 2013 and December 2015. It is well-known that such technical analysis figures may not always reach 100% of their limits, but it is normal to expect them to reach least 70%. With this in mind I can say that Gold has reached that 70% minimum.

The third consecutive high is also a shooting star candlestick, which has formed below the weekly resistance at 1300.

Also, the RSI indicator shows a very clear divergence between these three highs.

What is more, on the weekly time frame we can see a broadening triangle with four waves that have formed so far. It remains to be seen whether the fifth one will form as well. Such broadening triangles are often signals for a trend reversal.

With all these factors in mind, as well as the fact that signals that appear on the weekly time frame are pretty long-term, I wonder whether Gold will continue rising or we will see a new move to the downside. I am willing to accept the latter scenario, but time will tell whether I am right.

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