USD/CAD Is Falling towards the Support at 1.2650

Two months ago the pair formed a very clear shooting star candlestick on the monthly time frame, which was an obvious signal that it would start falling. Currently the pair is about to reach yet another target on its way down – the support at 1.2650, which coincides with (EMA)89 on the weekly time frame.

As we all know, however, the signals on the monthly time frame have long-term consequences, which is why I am almost certain that the support at 1.2650 wouldn’t be able to stop its descent for long and the pair will easily break below it. If this does happen, the next level of support is at 1.2570 – 1.2550, which is the middle line of Bollinger Bands on the monthly time frame.

USD/JPY Might Start Rising Again

Yesterday USD/JPY fell with around 180 pips which is a considerable drop, but today I think that the pair is about to resume moving to the upside.

At this point I expect it to start climbing towards 112.80 – 113.00. Also in case the current candlestick on the day time frame forms a hammer at or above the Bollinger Bands middle line I think we will see a further climb towards 114.00 – 114.50.

It is also possible that correction will be even deeper and the pair will rise even higher, but for now it is too early to say whether that will happen.

USD/JPY Formed a Double Top and Started Falling

Later today Janet Yellen will speak at the At the Economic Club of New York Luncheon, and it seems that the market is attempting to accumulate liquidity until then, so it can react when she does.

In my opinion, the only pair that had a clear signal about its future movements since this morning was USD/JPY.

113.80 proved to be a very strong level of resistance, since the pair reached it twice in the past two weeks and started falling once it became clear it couldn’t break above it.

For now my short position remains open because I intend to wait until it reaches 113.20. In case it breaks below that level, the next levels of support are at 112.80 – 112.70.

However, we should keep in mind that Yellen’s speech can cause all sorts of surprises, which is why I intend to place a stop loss while this position is still profitable.

EUR/USD Started Rising, as We Should Have Expected

The EUR/USD  range lasted 60 hours and the pair tested the support at 1.1150 for four days before it finally bounced off of that support in the end of the Easter holiday and started rising.

Today it climbed with around 50 pips before it stopped at the resistance at 1.1200.

Currently it’s difficult to say whether the pair will continue climbing above that level after a retracement or whether it will start falling towards the support again.

In my opinion, I doubt that the pair will continue rising until the end of the American trading session today.

On the other hand, we can most likely expect a further development tomorrow. In case EUR/USD does continue climbing, it will probably test the resistance at 1.1340 - 1.1350, and if it breaks above that level it will continue towards 1.1400.

Today Is Good Friday. EUR/USD Reached a Strong Support

Today a large part of the Christian world is celebrating Good Friday, which is why the market in most of these countries is closed, with the exception of the currency pairs.

I want to wish all my fellow traders who are celebrating today a happy and peaceful Easter!

I also want to remind those my fellow traders who have decided to open new trades despite the holiday that apart from being a holiday, today is also Friday, which means that the market will close soon in general.  

I, personally, don’t expect any major movements on the market, most pairs will probably be consolidating. I think we should all keep this in mind and not hope for any major trades today.

Although it seems that today will be pretty  uneventful, EUR/USD has reached a very strong level of support. Which is why I opened short-term long positions.

EUR/GBP Keeps Testing 0.79

EUR/GBP has been testing the powerful resistance at the 0.79 level, which coincides with the (EMA)89 (the green line) on the monthly time frame. The pair testing it even now.

I don’t know how many traders use (EMA)89, that is (Exponential Moving Average)89, in their technical analyses, but so far this indicator has never led me astray, especially when it comes to such a large time frame as the monthly one.

You can see for yourselves on the screenshots. On the weekly time frame the pair appears to be in the middle of nowhere, but on the monthly one the green line of (EMA)89 has been a barrier for the pair’s rise for a month now.

If it does manage to eventually break above 0.79 next level of resistance is 0.81.

The EUR/USD Prognosis Remains the Same

Back on Monday I wrote that the pair could potentially rise to 1.1550 – 1.16.

Although EUR/USD continued slowly falling since them, that drop is obviously part of a correction and is clearly contrasting with the impulse climbing since 2nd March (from 1.0833). Considering this I think that after the end of this correction there will be a new impulse move to the upside, towards the resistance at 1.1550, which can be seen on the weekly time frame.

After drawing the trend lines of the previous climb and then following drop, I believe that prognosis is still valid.

The pair can, indeed, reverse and start moving to the downside on a long-term basis if it breaks below 1.1170 – 1.1150. If that happens I will have to reexamine my analysis.