Wednesday, August 01, 2018

The Market Expects The Announcement Of The FED Interest Rate

That announcement will come out later today and the markets are, as expects, consolidating while waiting for it.

Preliminary data suggests no change in the interest rate, although surprises are always possible.

Yesterday the USD/JPY pair rallied with over 150 pips (from  110.74 to 112.14), after which a new butterfly pattern was formed on the H4 time frame, which hinted that the drop is impending, but the USD won’t begin depreciating before the news come out.

I think the pair will fall at least toward the main trend line of the upward trend (in dark blue).
In case of a breakout the drop could last to around  110.00 – 109.50.

The alternative scenario – in case the trend line holds, is for a renewal of the upward movement of the USD.