Saturday, July 15, 2017

USD/JPY In The Medium Term

 The USD/JPY pair could not break out above 114.50 and started falling. For the moment that is a corrective drop, but I think it could continue to around 111.70 – 111.50.

On the H4 time frame one can clearly notice that the waves to the downside have formed in threes and the third wave does not look complete – I think it will continue to 111.90 – 111.70. The drop to 111.50 is also very much possible. My expectation is that at that level the USD will find a strong support and the rally will be renewed.

The first target of that rally would be around 115.30 – 115.50, and after a breakout there could be another rally to 119.00 - 120.00.

In the alternate scenario there will be another drop and then a test of the weekly support around 109.50 – 109.00. I think, however, that scenario is less probable.