Is the Bearish EUR/USD Trend Over?

I am referring to the trend that began on 4th May 2004 and continued until around 29 November 2015, with its five impulse waves.

Why do I think that it might be over?

On the screenshot you can see the supposed five Elliot waves, which have all the typical characteristics of a finished impulse – there is a very long and steep third wave, a fourth wave that reaches exactly 38.2% Fibo (it’s almost a textbook example) and a fifth wave that is shorter than the third and could not reach its bottom, which is typical for fifth waves after such a long third wave.

If my supposition is correct, that would mean that the overall bullish trend has already begun, and after a correction we can expect a new move to the upside with its long-term target being at 1.2200 or even higher than that.

The other possible scenario is the classic expectation for EUR/USD to reach parity.

Still, at this stage we should be very careful when we trade this pair until we get a confirmation that the bearish trend is truly over.